When pollsters get it wrong.

One of the wonders of living in today's media society, especially if you're interested in politics and elections are due, is that you get a continuous stream of polls showing you movements in the electorate. Sometimes, however, pollsters get it wrong.

The pollster Synovate, polling for the Norwegian tabloid Dagbladet show in their newest poll that the Progress Party (Frp), a right-wing petro-populist, pseudo-libertarian/pseudo-social-democratic, slightly xenophobic party, goes from 25.2% to 20.6% in a month, the same month they had their national convention. In the same month the Socialist Party (SV), an anti-globalisation, anti-capitalism, anti-NATO, anti-EU, intellectual middleclass party, almost doubles their figures and goes from 6.4% to 11.1%

In itself, such dramatic changes in such a short time raise a few eye brows. What make it more interesting is the two parties in question. Had the change occurred between the Conservative Party and Frp it might have been explained by internal movement on the Right, as these two parties often exchange votes, and the Conservative Party had a very successful national convention as well this month. Had it been between SV and Labour, traditionally the biggest party in Norway and the uncontested Party of the Left, it might have been explained by the same reasons as for on the Right. Had the changes been in Frp and Labour, one on the Right and one on the Left, it would likewise had been fairly easy to explain, as these two parties often appeal to the same sociological voter segment. But between SV and Frp?!? Most Frp-voters would not dream of voting SV, and any good SV-voter would feel simply dirty by as much as thinking about voting Frp.

Looking at the other parties (Conservatives +0.5 to 14.5%, Liberals +1.5 to 5.4%, Christian Democrats back 1.4 to 5.9%, Communist +1.3 to 2.4% and Coastal Party +0.3 to 0.8)% there are overall quite a few significant changes, especially for the Liberals, Christian Democrats and Communists, who all have changes of about 1.5 percentage points.

No, this time until I see other polls showing the same tendency I cannot possibly believe this. Synovate, you got it wrong.