The Noughties are rapidly approaching their end. Although the decade technically doesn’t end until 31 December 2010 (remember all the fuzz about the third millennia beginning on 1 January 2000 or 2001? Same thing, just on a lesser scale), for rhetorical purposes it ends in roughly three weeks. Borrowing from others the 1990s was as a decade what the 1800s were as a century – a long and somewhat peaceful one.
The 19th century famously started with the French Revolution in 1879 and ended with the onset of the Great War in 1914. It was a century of hope, peace and progress. It saw liberal revolutions, the first attempts of democracy, the industrial revolution in Europe, an urban middle class paving the way for meritocracy over aristocracy and a globalised wave of free trade and free thoughts. And in the end the most advanced countries, industrially as well as culturally, went to war with one another and a generation of young men lost their lives on the fields Europe.
The decade of the 1990s were in many ways a rerun of the 19th century. It was in many ways a post-20th century decade. It kicked of with the Berlin wall being torn down in 1989 and it saw the spread of democracy, this time beyond the borders of Europe. Francis Fukuyama talked about the End of History and the victory of liberal democracy over all other forms of political systems, Boris Yeltsin made Russia part of the West and internet flattened the world and brought the most valuable commodity of all, information, to the poorest and most remote places of our planet. Utopia, here we come! Then came 11 September 2001.
The attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. were very much the starting point of this decade. They effectively ended the illusion of a liberal world order and brought us back into the age of rivalry. The Noughties haven’t only been the years of Islamic terrorism, although the people of London and Madrid have had their fair share. They have also been the years that ended the monopolar world of the Nineties, and brought back not the bipolarity of the Cold War and the 20th century, but rather the old multipolar system of Europe.
The 19th century, 1789-1914, was a long one. The 20th, 1914-1989, a short one. The 1990s, 1989-2001, was a long decade. There are those that argue that the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States and his subsequent reach-out to the Arab world represents the emergence of a new world order and thus that the Noughties ended in 2009. I am not one of those, I think neither he is Our Savior nor that he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, but I shall not dwell further on this. History is easier to judge in hindsight and there is not often you can see, and realize that you’re seeing era-changing events in the happening.
The Noughties have been, in my eyes, a trip back to the future. In addition to the US and Russia, the superpowers of the 20th century, Brazil, India and China are stepping onto the plate as elite players. South Africa has successfully made the transition to democracy, although they have yet to have a change of government since the transition, is a role model for the rest of Africa and represents a leading voice of the global South. In Latin America Venezuela has taken the role of a leader, and together with Iran they reject the notion of liberal ideas as we see them in Western Europe. International politics is no longer about the fight between Communism and The Free World, as it was in the Cold War. Nor is it about spreading Human Rights and liberal ideas. We have returned to Realpolitik and the era of national interest, only on a larger scale. It is no longer the European states that fight among themselves over control and influence in other parts of the world. Rather, it is Europe as a whole that competes or cooperates with Russia, China, the US, Iran and other emerging powers over influence in places like Africa, Latin and South America, the Middle East and Central and South-East Asia. It’s back to normal.
I cannot see a single event marking the end of the Noughties. If Copenhagen is a success it might be the one. If the world leaders in Copenhagen manages to come to a responsible agreement that will actually lead the way into a green and sustainable future that will be the end of the Noughties and a realization of what we believed in in the Nineties. But I don’t think so. What I can see is the re-emerging of a world order where nations don’t have friends, only common interests. It is a world where countries like France and the UK, as well as my own Norway, must realize their limitations but also the potentials of constructive and institutionalized cooperation. It is a world were autocratic regimes, like Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela, together with the US and regional powers such as Brazil, India and South Africa will play leading roles, but were Europe, it acting as one and being aware of its potential can still take the lead. This is not the world for idealist, but rather for leaders like Bismarck and Kissinger.
